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唐山市城市需水量预测及供水策略研究

标题: 唐山市城市需水量预测及供水策略研究
英文标题: Study on Water Demand Forecasting and Water Supply Policies of Tangshan
作者: 张艳青
出版时间: 2011-01-01
所在大学: 河北农业大学
关键词: 灰色模型,人均综合用水量,用水定额,管网平差
英文关键词: The grey model,comprehensive water consumption per capita,water consumption quota,conduit net adjustment
论文级别: 硕士
学位: 学位论文
导师: 刘俊良
专业: 农业水土工程
提交时间: 2011
摘要: 随着社会经济的发展,城市化进程的加快,城市用水量不断增大,水资源紧缺状况日趋严重.如何合理地开发利用城市水资源,支撑国民经济可持续发展和人民生活水平可持续提高,是摆在城市发展面前的重要课题之一.为实现这一目标,就必须根据城市总体规划目标及国民经济发展前景预测城市需水量,并结合可供开采利用的水资源量定位城市供水设施建设及城市发展战略.因此,研究城市需水量预测技术和方法是城市可持续发展的重要基础工作,具有重要的战略价值和指导意义.城市需水量与城市规模、人口数量、国民经济、生活水平和基础设施完善程度等因素有关.准确建立城市需水量模型是一项十分复杂的过程.以河北省唐山市为例,对城市需水量预测模型的建立进行比较深入的研究.首先分析唐山市历年总取水量,研究分析其用水量规律,建立城市用水量模型,进而分析其对用水量产生影响的各种主要因素.其次研究城市用水量规律,同时要建立多种对应关系,如总用水量、人均总用水量、人均生活用水量、万元产值取水量等随时间变化的关系.同时,重点研究建立灰色预测模型,针对该模型在中长期预测中存在的缺陷和限制,对灰色预测理论进行改进,一是根据水量原始数据的情况进行分组,分别建立GM(1,1)模型计算出每组数据的灰色系数α、μ值,以灰色系数为研究对象建立相应的GM(1,1)模型预测出两组α、μ值;二是通过新息预测理论增加两组最新α、μ值去掉两组旧值,再预测出两组α、μ值,以此类推得出α、μ的预测值;三是将预测得到的α、μ值代入各组GM(1,1)模型中计算出相应的水量预测值.将此方法称为新息灰色递阶预测法,该方法结合了灰色递阶预测理论和新息灰色预测理论的优点.利用新息灰色递阶预测模型对唐山市长期(2020年)需水量进行预测,在预测过程中该模型成功地拟合了唐山市凹曲线用水趋势,克服了GM(1,1)模型单调性拟合的缺陷,使预测精度更高.研究过程中发现以人均综合用水量为参数对城市需水量进行中长期预测是科学的、准确的,特别是运用于反应历史数据较少的情况.通过该方法对唐山市城市远期(2020年)需水量进行预测,利用该预测结果对模型预测结果进行评析,最终确定预测模型准确且精度较高.最后确定唐山市城市需水量后,结合唐山市水资源状况、城市总体规划和现状供水能力,制定唐山市中长期供水方案,并根据唐山市现状管网分析结果,确定出唐山市输配水管网的规划方案.本文提供了科学、合理的需水量预测模型,不仅准确的预测出唐山市城市需水量,而且为城市需水量预测模型的发展提供了新的思路.
英文摘要: With social and economic development and the quickening course of urbanization, urban water consumption is increasing which lead to a worsening circumstance of water shortage. It is an important problem to the development of every city that how to exploit and utilize water resources reasonably to support the sustainable development of national economy and the sustainable improvement of people's living standards. To achieve this goal, urban water demand forecasting must be according to urban comprehensive planning and the development perspectives of national economy and at the same time, we should design water supply facilities construction and urban development strategy with a combination of the amount of available water resources. Therefore, to reach the technology of urban water demand is an important foundation work of great strategic value and instruction for urban sustainable development. It is important foundation work of urban sustainable development to study forecasting techniques and methods of city demand water, and it is important strategic value and significance for development of city.The urban water demand relates to urban size, population, national economy, living standard, the degree of perfection of infrastructures and so on. It is sophisticated to establish forecasting model of urban water demand accurately. Here we take an example for Tang Shan to establish and in-depth study forecasting model of urban water demand.First, we analyze the water consumption of Tang Shan, and study its pattern and then we establish forecasting model and study the influencing factor of urban water consumption.Second, we analyze the law of water consumption of Tang Shan, find to the time-relations of total water consumption, total water consumption per capita, comprehensive consumption per capita, water consumption per unit production value and so on.Now we establish Grey Model and study it primarily. Because the Grey Model have some defect in the long-term water demand forecasting, we improve the Grey Model by three ways. First, we divide the data according to the water consumption of Tang Shan, and then establish the Grey Model and figure out theα、μwhich are grey model coefficients. As the research object to the value ofα、μ, we establish the Grey Model again, and predict two groups of values ofα、μ. Second, according to innovation grey model, we predict all the values ofα、μ. The last, we take the values ofα、μinto the Grey Model and calculate the urban water demand. We can call this method as the innovation Grey Model increasing order evaluation. This method combines the advantages of Innovation Grey Model and the Grey Increasing Order Evaluation. We have used this method successfully in predicting the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020. The new forecasting model successfully fit the concave curve of the trend of Tang Shan's water consumption, bear down all defects of the Grey Model with a higher prediction accuracy. We find that using the comprehensive consumption per capita to forecast urban water demand is scientific and correct, especially when there are less historic data. Using this method, we predicted the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020 and contrast to the prediction of the innovation Grey Model increasing order evaluation then we found that its prediction have high accuracy.At last, after predicting the water demand of Tang Shan, we combine the water resource, the general planning and water supply capacity to make long-term water supply program. We analysis the current water supply network, and make rebuilding water supply program.In the article we present a scientific and reasonable new forecasting model, it not only predicted the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020 accurately, but also offered a new way to study the urban water demand forecasting model.